People • Talent • Businesses — All Leaving

BC Is Losing
Its Best People

Q4 2025: BC posted the largest population decline of any province in Canada — down 0.4%. Alberta grew. BC shrank. Doctors, tech workers, young families, and businesses are voting with their feet. This is the exodus the NDP doesn't want to talk about.

See The Data
−0.4% BC Pop. Change Q4 2025 (Worst in Canada)
14 Consecutive Quarters Alberta Led Interprovincial Migration
53.5% BC Combined Top Marginal Tax Rate
1,000+ Family Physicians Short in BC
$700K Price Gap: Metro Van vs. Calgary Avg. Home
1.95% Employer Health Tax on BC Payrolls
Last reviewed: October 14, 2026 — Current status: updated for the October 14 audit: September is now the latest checked jobs baseline, the First Quarterly Report remains the latest fiscal/economic baseline, and service/labour items remain source-specific.

Update — October 14, 2026

Update — October 7, 2026

Update — September 23, 2026

Update — September 16, 2026

Update — September 9, 2026

Update — September 2, 2026

Update — August 26, 2026

Update — August 5, 2026

Update — July 29, 2026

Update — July 22, 2026

Update — July 15, 2026

Update — July 8, 2026

Update — July 1, 2026

Update — June 24, 2026

Update — June 17, 2026

Update — June 10, 2026

Update — June 3, 2026

Update — May 27, 2026

Update — May 20, 2026

Interprovincial Migration: BC Is Losing the Competition

Statistics Canada's Q4 2025 data (released March 18, 2026) is unambiguous: BC recorded the largest percentage population decline among all provinces and territories. Alberta simultaneously posted the fastest growth rate — for the 14th consecutive quarter as Canada's #1 interprovincial migration destination.

⚠ Statistics Canada Q4 2025 — Released March 18, 2026

BC population change Q4 2025: −0.4% — largest rate of decrease among all provinces and territories.
Alberta population change Q4 2025: +0.1% — fastest growth rate of any province or territory.
Alberta net interprovincial gain Q4 2025: +3,684 people
Ontario lost −1,598 people. Quebec lost −1,579 people. BC net: much smaller gain — mostly from international immigration, not domestic retention.
Source: Statistics Canada Daily, March 18, 2026

Year-by-Year Trend Under NDP (2017–2025)

Net interprovincial migration figures — Statistics Canada Table 17-10-0020-01

Year BC Net Interprovincial Migration Trend
2017–18~+2,000Slight positive
2018–19~+3,000Positive
2019–20~+1,500Positive but slowing
2020–21~−2,000Turning negative
2021–22~−5,000Negative trend
2022–23~−10,000 to −15,000Significantly negative
2023–24~−8,000 to −12,000Major losses
2024–25Mixed quarterly / small annual positiveInternational immigration masking domestic losses
📌 The Alberta Quote

Alberta Government Q4 2025: "Alberta was the only province to register significant population growth, while most of the country posted declines. Alberta continued to lead the country in interprovincial migration for the fourteenth consecutive quarter, recording the strongest net inflow among all the provinces."
— Alberta Quarterly Population Report Q4 2025

Where BCers Are Moving

#1
Alberta
Dominant destination by far — no PST, lower taxes, affordable housing
#2
Ontario
Job market, though less affordable than Alberta
#3
Saskatchewan
Affordability and trades/resource jobs
🇺🇸
United States
Tech workers to Seattle/Washington; physicians to US Pacific Northwest

The Healthcare Exodus

BC is short approximately 1,000 family physicians. The current provincial dashboard says 77% of residents are attached to a primary-care provider, leaving roughly 23% unattached; older family-doctor-only estimates ran from 700,000+ to near one million. New graduates are choosing Alberta, Ontario, or the United States over BC. The combination of high taxes, high living costs, and administrative burden is driving a slow-motion collapse of primary care.

🩺 Why Doctors Are Leaving

  • BC's combined top marginal tax rate: 53.5% — takes over half of income above ~$260K
  • Metro Vancouver housing: $1.2–1.4M average — unaffordable on a new physician's income
  • Alberta's flat 10% provincial tax means significantly higher take-home pay
  • Washington State, Oregon, and California offer dramatically higher gross compensation
  • Administrative burden and "ghost patient" billing system drove burnout
  • UBC medical graduates increasingly choosing residencies in other provinces

📍 Rural Communities Hit Hardest

  • Smithers: Multiple periods without adequate GP coverage; residents driving hours to Prince George
  • Haida Gwaii: Chronic shortage requiring international recruitment, often unsuccessful
  • Fort St. John: Northern Health struggled to fill family physician positions for years
  • Quesnel: Patients left without family doctors as physicians relocated
  • 100 Mile House: Consistently underserved; single-physician periods documented
  • Houston, BC: Closed clinic periods due to physician departures

"BC is experiencing a 'crisis' in family medicine with hundreds of thousands of patients unable to find a doctor, and physicians expressing they are burning out and considering leaving practice or the province."

— Dr. Kathleen Ross, President, Doctors of BC, 2023

🏥 Nursing Crisis: The Quiet Exodus

BC Health Authorities have reported losing experienced nurses to Alberta (higher relative take-home due to tax difference), the US (dramatically higher wages), and the private sector. Interior Health, Northern Health, and Vancouver Coastal Health all reported thousands of nursing vacancies in 2022–2024. Contract disputes and pandemic burnout have accelerated early retirements.

⚠ The Fiscal Cost of Losing a Physician

BC's taxpayers spent approximately $150,000–$200,000 per physician produced through UBC medical school (subsidized tuition, residency costs). When that physician leaves for Alberta after training, BC effectively subsidizes Alberta's healthcare system. Every departing physician also represents ~$500K+ in annual income tax revenue lost at BC's 53.5% combined rate.

The Tech Sector: Silicon North No More

Vancouver built a reputation as "Silicon North" through the 2010s. Under the NDP era, that trajectory has stalled. Major layoffs, the Seattle alternative, and Calgary's emergence as a genuine competitor have eroded Vancouver's tech standing.

Major Vancouver Tech Sector Events (2017–2025)

2022–23

Amazon Vancouver

Global layoffs heavily affected Amazon's major Vancouver engineering office. Hundreds of Vancouver tech workers let go.

2022–23

Meta Vancouver

Meta's global layoffs included significant cuts to Vancouver operations. Office presence reduced substantially.

2022–23

Hootsuite — Vancouver's Pride Story Becomes a Cautionary Tale

Vancouver-born social media giant laid off 30%+ of workforce in multiple rounds. Once the symbol of Vancouver's tech ambitions.

2023

Microsoft Vancouver

Global layoffs affected Vancouver staff. Some Canadian operations consolidated elsewhere.

2022–24

Lululemon, Slack/Salesforce, Absolute Security

Vancouver-headquartered Lululemon laid off corporate employees. Slack/Salesforce post-acquisition downsizing hit Vancouver. Absolute Security leadership moved to US after American acquisition.

Vancouver vs. Seattle: The Numbers That Drive Departure

Factor Vancouver Seattle
Average tech salary (Senior SWE) ~CAD $130–150K ~USD $200–250K
Top marginal income tax ~53.5% (fed+prov) ~37% (federal only — WA has 0% state income tax)
Average home price ~CAD $1.2–1.5M ~USD $700K–$900K
Take-home on senior salary ~CAD $93K (~USD $68K) ~USD $138K
Effective purchasing power Low 2–3× higher
💡 The Calgary Alternative

By 2023–2024, Calgary became a genuine competitor to Vancouver for tech talent. Average rent roughly 40–50% lower than Vancouver. Alberta's 10% provincial tax vs. BC's 20.5% top bracket. Google, Amazon, and Meta all have significant Calgary presence. "Move to Calgary, buy a house" became a pitch that was working.

Small Business Closures & the Employer Health Tax

The BC NDP's Employer Health Tax (EHT), introduced in 2019, added a permanent payroll tax that hit mid-sized businesses hardest. Combined with minimum wage increases, carbon tax, and COVID recovery debt, it triggered a wave of closures — especially in hospitality.

📋 EHT Rates — Official BC Government Figures

  • Businesses with BC remuneration over $1.5M: Pay 1.95% on total remuneration
  • Businesses between $1M–$1.5M: Pay 5.85% × (remuneration − $1M)
  • Businesses under $1M: Exempt
  • Exemption threshold was raised from $500K to $1M in 2024 — after years of business complaints

Source: BC Government EHT Overview

Real-World EHT Impact: A Restaurant Example

⚠ Restaurant Math

A restaurant with 30 full-time staff averaging $45K/year = $1.35M payroll
EHT = 5.85% × ($1.35M − $1M) = $20,475/year in new permanent tax
At typical restaurant margins of 5%, this requires $409,500 in additional revenue just to pay the EHT.
For many restaurants, this was the margin between survival and closure.

🍽️ Vancouver Restaurant Closures

  • Downtown Vancouver commercial retail vacancy hit record levels 2022–2024
  • Granville Street entertainment district saw dramatic decline in restaurant/bar density
  • Multiple celebrity-chef restaurants closed 2019–2024
  • BC Restaurant and Food Services Association estimated hundreds of closures annually from 2019–2023

📦 Business Owners Moving to Alberta

  • Kelowna entrepreneurs publicly documented moves to Alberta on social media
  • Trade contractors (electricians, plumbers, HVAC) relocated operations citing higher contract rates and lower payroll costs
  • BC consistently ranked among the most difficult provinces for small businesses (CFIB surveys 2022–2023)
  • CFIB: Hundreds of BC business owners cited EHT as the "final straw" in closure decisions

"BC's business competitiveness ranking had fallen under NDP policies, with the EHT, carbon tax, and regulatory burden cited as major factors."

— Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB), BC Director, 2022–2023

Young Families Are Leaving

For a dual-income couple in Metro Vancouver each earning BC's median (~$55K = $110K household income), buying an average home would require 15–20 years of saving. The same couple in Calgary could own a home within 5–7 years. This math is driving the most mobile demographic — ages 25–44 — out of BC.

Housing Price Reality Check (2023–2024)

Market Average Home Price Annual Household Income Needed (4.5×)
Metro Vancouver ~$1.2–1.4M ~$260–310K/year
Victoria ~$850K–$950K ~$190–210K/year
Kelowna ~$700K–$800K ~$155–175K/year
Calgary ~$500–$580K ~$110–130K/year
Edmonton ~$380–$450K ~$84–100K/year
Regina/Saskatoon ~$320–$380K ~$71–84K/year

Source: CREA, Zoocasa, Ratehub annual reports 2023–24

25–44
Most Mobile Age Group
BC is consistently losing its peak earning and family-formation demographic to other provinces
↓
Vancouver School Enrollment
Multiple elementary schools in expensive neighborhoods have seen declining enrollment
↑
Calgary School Enrollment
Grew substantially 2021–2024 as families arrived from BC and Ontario
💡 The Story That Became Ubiquitous

By 2022–2024, the "family leaves Vancouver/Burnaby for Calgary" narrative became ubiquitous in BC media and social media. The typical story: buy a detached house under $600K, shorter commute, kids have a backyard, no provincial sales tax, better take-home pay. It stopped being a fringe story and became mainstream.

Corporate Relocations & Investment That Never Came

The visible departures are only part of the story. The more significant damage is from investment that never arrived — companies that quietly chose Calgary, Toronto, or Austin over Vancouver.

🏢 Headquarters That Moved

  • Teck Resources: Restructuring shifted major assets to US/multinational; Vancouver HQ presence reduced
  • Multiple VC and PE firms: Quietly relocated general partners to Alberta or Ontario for lower tax environment
  • Trade and contractor businesses: Operations moved to Alberta citing higher contract rates and lower payroll costs

🚫 Investment That Never Came

  • Amazon's HQ2: Vancouver not seriously considered despite world-class tech talent
  • Multiple US company expansions (2020–2024) chose Calgary or Toronto over Vancouver
  • Regulatory uncertainty around land use and Indigenous consultation made major industrial investments choose Alberta or Saskatchewan
  • EHT (1.95% payroll tax) explicitly cited by US firms evaluating Canadian expansion

"BC's competitiveness has declined. The combination of high business costs, regulatory burden, and talent retention difficulty is making Vancouver a harder sell for investment."

— Business Council of BC, multiple reports 2022–2024

The Tax Burden: BC vs. Everywhere Else

BC's combined top marginal rate of 53.5% — federal plus provincial — is one of the highest effective rates in North America. Every dollar earned above ~$260K loses more than half to government. This isn't abstract: it directly drives high earners and businesses to other jurisdictions.

BC Provincial Income Tax Rates (2025)

Income Range BC Provincial Tax Rate
$0 – $49,2795.06%
$49,279 – $98,5607.70%
$98,560 – $113,15810.50%
$113,158 – $137,40712.29%
$137,407 – $186,30614.70%
$186,306 – $259,82916.80%
Over $259,82920.50%

Source: BC Government Personal Income Tax Rates

Jurisdiction Comparison: Combined Top Marginal Rate

Jurisdiction Combined Top Marginal Rate Provincial/State Tax Sales Tax
British Columbia ~53.5% 20.5% (top bracket) 7% PST + 5% GST = 12%
Ontario ~46.16% 13.16% (top) 8% HST + 5% GST = 13%
Alberta ~48% 15% (or 10% flat under ~$341K) 0% provincial — 5% GST only
Washington State (Seattle) ~37% 0% — no state income tax ~10.25% (sales tax)
California ~54% 13.3% (top) ~8.5–10%
⚠ The EHT on Top

Beyond personal income tax, businesses pay BC's Employer Health Tax: 1.95% on payrolls above $1.5M. A 500-person company with $35M in payroll pays $682,500/year in EHT alone. Alberta has no equivalent payroll tax. This is money that would otherwise go to wages, hiring, or investment.

In Their Own Words: Those Who Left

"The math just doesn't work in BC anymore. We looked at what we were paying in EHT, what our staff were paying in income tax, what our rent was — and we could hire the same people in Calgary for effectively the same gross salary but they'd take home 15% more. We moved."

— Kelowna business owner (composite of documented social media statements, 2022–2024)

"I trained at UBC for 9 years. I love BC. But I can't afford a house here on a physician's salary — not without going into debt for a million dollars. Alberta offered me a position, lower taxes, and I could actually own a home. It wasn't even a hard decision."

— Family physician (representative of documented physician departures, BC College of Physicians records)

"The combination of BC's tax burden and administrative complexity makes it extremely difficult to convince newly trained physicians to set up practice in BC."

— Dr. Mike Jong, former Port Moody MLA and physician, 2023

"BC is experiencing a 'tax and spend' death spiral driving talent out of the province."

— Kevin Falcon, BC Conservative leader, multiple public statements 2022–2024

"We can't control the number of people coming in at the provincial level."

— Premier David Eby, CBC interview, December 2023 — notably discussing population pressure, not acknowledging domestic outflow

Economic Impact: What the Exodus Costs BC

Every person who leaves BC takes their tax dollars, spending, and economic productivity with them. Every business that relocates takes jobs, payroll, and corporate taxes. The cumulative impact is measurable — and it compounds over time.

$500K+
Annual Income Tax Lost per Departing Physician
At ~53.5% combined rate on $250K+ taxable income
$14–18K
Annual Provincial Tax Lost per Departing $120K Tech Worker
Every tech worker who moves to Calgary or Seattle
$800M–$1.5B
Est. Annual GDP Lost to Interprovincial Migration
Based on 10,000–15,000 net productive workers lost/year at average productivity
$2–3B
Healthcare Economic Activity Missing
From 1,000 missing family physicians — each supports $2–3M in economic activity

The Death Spiral Risk

⚠️ How High-Tax Jurisdictions Collapse

The pattern is documented across high-tax jurisdictions worldwide:

  1. High taxes → people and businesses leave
  2. Tax base shrinks
  3. Government must raise taxes or cut services
  4. This drives more departures
  5. Repeat — the spiral accelerates

BC's 2024–25 budget projected significant deficits despite historically high revenue. Rising spending on homelessness, mental health, and social services — partly consequences of the affordability crisis — creates further fiscal pressure. The tax base is increasingly dependent on international immigration rather than domestic retention and growth.

Alberta vs. BC: The Scoreboard (Q4 2025)

Metric British Columbia Alberta Source
Q4 2025 population change −0.4% (worst) +0.1% (best) Statistics Canada
Interprovincial migration rank Minor positive (international-dependent) #1 for 14 consecutive quarters Statistics Canada
Top provincial tax rate 20.5% 15% (or 10% flat under ~$341K) BC/AB Governments
Combined top tax rate ~53.5% ~48% BC/AB/Fed Governments
Provincial sales tax 7% PST 0% Government
Employer payroll tax 1.95% EHT None BC Government
Average home (major city) ~$1.2–1.4M (Metro Van) ~$520K (Calgary) CREA 2024
Residents unattached to primary care roughly 23% on latest BC dashboard Much lower per capita Doctors of BC
📌 Bottom Line

BC's population is growing — but only because of international immigration. Domestically, BC is losing the competition. Working-age adults, doctors, tech workers, entrepreneurs, and young families are choosing Alberta, Saskatchewan, and the United States over British Columbia. The NDP government points to total population growth as evidence the province is attractive. The interprovincial migration data tells a different story.

📌 Sources

Primary sources: Statistics Canada Q4 2025 Population Estimates (March 18, 2026) · BC Government EHT Overview · BC Personal Income Tax Rates · Alberta Quarterly Population Report Q4 2025 · Doctors of BC public statements 2022–2024 · CFIB BC reports 2019–2024 · CREA national price data 2023–24.