Eby’s 538-Vote Warning Label
David Eby asked B.C. for a snap-election mandate. In his own Vancouver-Point Grey riding, the initial count cut his old cushion down to a narrow lead.
David Eby’s snap-election gamble did not just collapse around the province. It reached his own doorstep.
BC Ballot’s Vancouver-Point Grey page says Eby, the BC NDP MLA for the riding until the Legislative Assembly was dissolved on September 22, leads the 2026 initial count by 538 votes. The count is explicitly marked initial and not final, with final count planned for November 6 to 10. That caution matters. The point is not to pretend the riding has finished counting. The point is that the premier’s own seat became a warning sign at the first count.
The numbers are blunt. BC Ballot lists Eby at 7,811 votes, or 42.97 per cent, and Conservative Alex McMillan at 7,273 votes, or 40.01 per cent. Beatrice Sharpe of the BC Greens is listed at 2,448 votes, or 13.47 per cent, with CentreBC’s Michael Davis at 647 votes, or 3.56 per cent.
Compare that with the previous election. BC Ballot records Eby’s 2024 margin in Vancouver-Point Grey as 4,916 votes. Elections BC’s 2024 statement of votes shows the same shape: Eby won with 12,538 votes, or 56.77 per cent, while Conservative Paul Ratchford had 7,622 votes, or 34.51 per cent, and Green candidate Devyani Singh had 1,925 votes, or 8.72 per cent.
That is the hard receipt: a 4,916-vote cushion became a 538-vote initial-count lead. Eby’s personal vote total fell from 12,538 in 2024 to 7,811 in the 2026 initial count. His share dropped from 56.77 per cent to 42.97 per cent. Those figures do not require spin, theory or anonymous sourcing. They sit in the riding tables.
The province-wide ledger makes the local result even sharper. BC Ballot’s overall 2026 results summary says the initial count has the BC NDP leading in 28 ridings, the Conservatives in 63, and the Greens in two, with no seats declared by Elections BC at that stage. Elections BC’s own election page says voting is closed, Final Voting Day was October 24, and final count is planned for November 6 to 10.
So the legally careful wording is this: Eby leads Vancouver-Point Grey in the initial count, and final count still matters. The politically unavoidable wording is this: a premier who sought an early mandate watched his own riding shrink from a safe-looking 2024 cushion to a 538-vote scare.
Voters in Vancouver-Point Grey did not need pundit language to send that message. The ballot arithmetic did it for them. The NDP can argue about province-wide strategy, turnout and final count mechanics. It cannot erase the local receipt: Eby’s snap election put his own seat on the warning label.