Eby Pulled the Snap-Election Lever. The New Tracker Shows a Trapdoor.
Liaison’s latest B.C. tracker is not just one bad headline number. It shows the ballot, Eby’s approval and the province’s mood all moving against the government.
David Eby asked British Columbians for a new mandate. The newest Liaison Strategies tracker says the public answer, at least this week, is moving the other way.
Liaison released its October 9 B.C. Political Tracker with the BC Conservatives at 43% and the BC NDP at 37% among decided and leaning voters. The survey was conducted October 7 and 8 with 1,000 British Columbians reached by IVR random-digit dialling across landline and cellular networks. Liaison reports a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, for the full sample, with larger uncertainty for subsamples.
The legally careful way to read a poll is not to pretend it is an election result. It is a snapshot. But this snapshot has a trend line attached. Liaison’s own sequence has the Conservatives moving from 36% on September 23, to 40% on September 29, to 43% on October 9. Over the same releases, the NDP moved from 41%, to 39%, to 37%.
That is the accountability problem for Eby. The early election was supposed to strengthen the government’s hand. Instead, Liaison’s numbers show the NDP losing ground after the campaign began. Voters can decide whether that reflects campaign performance, accumulated frustration, or both. What Eby cannot credibly do is wave away the sequence while asking for another blank cheque.
The leader numbers are just as damaging. Liaison says Eby’s job approval is now 34% approve and 48% disapprove, down from 38% approve and 45% disapprove in the prior survey. His net approval moved from minus seven to minus fourteen. That is not an abstract partisan score. It is the premier’s own standing deteriorating during the campaign he chose to trigger.
The province’s mood may be the hardest number for the NDP to spin. Liaison reports 54% saying British Columbia is headed in the wrong direction, compared with 30% saying right direction. The previous figures were 50% and 33%. When more than half the province says the direction is wrong, another round of campaign promises is not enough. The government has to explain why years in power produced the conditions voters are now judging.
Elections BC says writs have been issued for the 44th Provincial General Election, with Final Voting Day on Saturday, October 24. That gives voters a short, clear test. Eby called this contest early. Liaison’s tracker says the ballot, the premier’s approval and the direction-of-province measure are all moving against him. The burden is now on the NDP to prove this was more than a political gamble with B.C.’s calendar.