CMHC Says Vancouver Is Still Thousands of Homes Short Every Year
The rental shift is real. The supply gap is still real. After years of NDP housing announcements, CMHC’s latest report gives voters the receipt.
David Eby’s housing pitch has always asked British Columbians to trust the machinery: more laws, more targets, more announcements, more central control from Victoria. CMHC’s Fall 2026 Housing Supply Report offers a colder test. In Vancouver, the machinery is still not producing enough homes.
The federal housing agency says Canada’s supply gap is broadly unchanged from last year. For Vancouver, the verdict is even more pointed: the supply gap remained stable in 2026, not solved. CMHC estimates the region’s business-as-usual pace at about 20,000 starts a year, while the pace needed to restore 2019 affordability by 2036 is 25,000 to 27,000. That is the 5,000-to-7,000-home annual gap hiding beneath the ribbon cuttings.
There is nuance here, and it matters. CMHC says purpose-built rental apartments now account for about 60% of Vancouver housing starts, compared with less than 20% a decade ago. That added rental supply has helped move the rental market toward more balance. Renters need homes, and rental construction is not a failure.
But the NDP does not get to declare victory because one lane improved while another lane collapses. CMHC warns that ownership-oriented supply is weakening, especially condominiums. In Vancouver, condo apartments have traditionally been the biggest source of new ownership housing. CMHC says condo starts fell a further 40% in the first half of 2026 after a weak 2025, making it the weakest first half-year for new condominium construction since 2011.
That is the contradiction voters should take into the campaign. Eby’s government has spent years promising speed, supply and affordability. Yet CMHC is warning that today’s weak condo construction could mean fewer completions in future years, more competition for limited ownership stock, and renewed pressure on prices even as rental supply improves.
Stable is not solved. A housing market can show partial relief and still leave families locked out. A government can point to real rental gains and still fail the broader affordability test. The question for Eby is not whether there have been announcements. The question is why, after all the announcements, Vancouver is still thousands of homes a year short of the pace CMHC says is needed to get back to pre-pandemic affordability.