Eby’s Deficit Bill Just Became Doerkson’s First Budget Trap

The first budget trap of the post-Eby era is brutally simple: British Columbians were promised relief, but the books the NDP leaves behind are already screaming restraint.

The Canadian Press reported October 28 that economists are questioning whether the incoming BC Conservative government can cut taxes, reduce the deficit and accelerate growth at the same time. UBC professor Werner Antweiler called cutting taxes while fixing the budget “contradictory” and said B.C. needs “a small dose of austerity” because “shrink we must.” That is not partisan spin. It is an economist looking at the arithmetic the next finance minister inherits.

The official numbers explain why. The Province’s September fiscal update forecast a $13.8-billion deficit for 2026-27 — $450 million worse than Budget 2026 — while real GDP growth was projected at only 0.9% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027. Budget 2026 had already projected three years of deep red ink: $13.3 billion in 2026-27, $12.2 billion in 2027-28 and $11.4 billion in 2028-29.

That is the fiscal inheritance David Eby leaves on the desk. During the campaign, Conservatives promised to raise the basic personal exemption to $32,000, a tax-cut package Canadian Press reporting described as adding up to $11.3 billion by 2030, while also promising faster growth and a core review. Their own problem now is execution. But the reason that problem is so punishing is the NDP baseline: huge deficits, expensive contingencies, higher spending and slow growth before the new government even touches a budget.

Business Council of B.C. policy director Jairo Yunis told CP that public-sector employment had grown by more than 45% since 2019 under the NDP while private-sector employment was up only about 3%. He said public-sector cuts need to be a major part of the spending-review conversation. That lands hard because Budget 2026 itself talked about hiring restrictions, an efficiency review and streamlining program delivery. Even the outgoing government’s own documents admitted the status quo needed tightening.

None of this proves every Conservative campaign number will survive contact with the ledger. It may not. Antweiler called the growth forecast “lofty,” and the platform’s promised exclusions from review will make meaningful savings harder. Voters should demand honest math from the new government too.

But the NDP cannot pretend the trap began after election night. Eby’s government normalized deficits so large that tax relief, service protection and balance-sheet repair now pull against each other. The first core review is not merely a Conservative choice. It is the receipt for years of NDP fiscal management finally coming due.