CMHC’s New Warning: Vancouver Ownership Supply Is Sliding Backward
The NDP talks about opening the door to homeownership. CMHC says Vancouver’s condo pipeline — the city’s main source of new ownership homes — just fell to its weakest first half-year since 2011.
David Eby’s housing brand is built on speed, supply and the promise that government action will make homes attainable again. The federal housing agency’s September 10 report lands like a flashing red warning light: in Vancouver, the affordability supply gap has not improved, and the ownership pipeline is getting worse.
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation says Vancouver’s supply gap to restore pre-pandemic affordability remained unchanged in 2026. CMHC’s table puts Vancouver’s business-as-usual housing starts at about 20,000 a year, but says the region needs roughly 25,000 to 27,000 starts annually to get back to pre-pandemic affordability by 2036. That is a 5,000-to-7,000-home annual gap, even before considering that Vancouver was already unaffordable for many households in 2019.
The sharper warning is ownership. CMHC says rental apartments now account for about 60% of Vancouver housing starts, up from less than 20% in 2016. Rental construction rose roughly 36% compared with 2025. That is real supply, and renters need it. But CMHC also says “ownership-oriented housing continues to weaken”: after a weak 2025, condominium apartment starts fell another 40% in the first half of 2026, making it Vancouver’s weakest first half-year for new condo construction since 2011.
That distinction matters. Condominiums are not perfect, and expensive investor condos are not a full affordability plan. But in Metro Vancouver, CMHC identifies condominium apartments as the biggest source of new homeownership supply. When that pipeline stalls, today’s missing starts become tomorrow’s missing completions. CMHC warns that future buyers could face more competition for a limited supply of ownership homes, putting renewed upward pressure on prices even as rental supply improves.
The province’s own housing messaging says it is “opening the door” for first-time homebuyers through partnerships, tax benefits and more options for first homes. That is the standard the NDP chose. If the main new ownership pipeline in Vancouver is now at a fifteen-year first-half low, British Columbians deserve more than another announcement photo and another slogan about homes for people.
The government should publish a plain ownership-supply ledger: condo starts, presales, approvals waiting for financing, projects converted to rental, units completed, unsold inventory, and the exact policy changes it believes will close the annual 5,000-to-7,000-home Vancouver gap. Separate rental progress from ownership failure. Count starts, not speeches.
Eby cannot claim a housing breakthrough while CMHC says Vancouver’s affordability gap is unchanged and first-home supply is sliding backward. If the plan is working, show the numbers. If the numbers are this bad, change the plan.